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All Ebook Formats $49.99 ISBN: 9781610914840 Published February 2013
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Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States

A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment

 Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States
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Edited by Gregg Garfin

528 pages | 8 x 10
Prepared for the 2013 National Climate Assessment and a landmark study in terms of its breadth and depth of coverage, this report blends the contributions of 120 experts in climate science, economics, ecology, engineering, geography, hydrology, planning, resources management, and other disciplines to provide the most comprehensive, and understandable, analysis to date about climate and its effects on the people and landscapes of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah—including the U.S.-Mexico border region and the lands of Native Nations.
 
What is the climate of the Southwest like today? What has it been like in the past, and how is it projected to change over the 21st century? How will that affect water resources, ecosystems, agricultural production, energy supply and delivery, transportation, human health, and a host of other areas? How vulnerable is the region to climate change? What else do we need to know about it, and how can we limit its adverse effects?
 
In addressing these and other questions, the book offers decision makers and stakeholders a substantial basis from which to make informed choices that will affect the well-being of the region’s inhabitants in the decades to come.

Chapter 1: Summary for Decision Makers
1.1. Introduction
1.2. Observed Recent Climatic Change in the Southwest
1.3. Projected Future Climatic Change in the Southwest
1.4. Recent and Future Effects of Climatic Change in the Southwest  
1.5. Choices for Adjusting to Climate and Climate Change
1.6. Key Unknowns

CONTEXT
Chapter 2: Overview
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Context and Scope
2.3. Other Southwest Region Climate Assessments
2.4. Sponsors and Authors of the 2012 SRCA
2.5. Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty
2.6. Accountability and Review
2.7. Organization of this Report
Chapter 3: The Changing Southwest
3.1. Lay of the Land: Geographical Themes and Features
3.2. Land Use and Land Cover


WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWEST
Chapter 4: Present Weather and Climate: Average Conditions
4.1. Introduction
4.2. General Climate Characteristics
4.3. Major Climate and Weather Events
4.4. Climate Variability
Chapter 5: Present Weather and Climate: Evolving Conditions
5.1. Introduction
5.2. Climate of the First Decade of the Twenty-first Century 
5.3. Climate Trends for 1901-2010
5.4. Extreme Weather Variability During 1901-2010
5.5. Summertime Drought During 1901-2010
5.6. Hydroclimatic Variability During 1901-2010
5.7. Paleoclimate of the Southwest United States
5.8. Future Monitoring and Science Needs
Chapter 6: Future Climate: Projected Average
6.1. Global Climate Models: Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling
6.2. Climate Scenarios
6.3. Data Sources
6.4. Temperature Projections
6.5. Projections of Other Temperature Variables
6.6. Precipitation Projections
6.7. Atmospheric Circulation Changes
6.8. North American Monsoon
6.9. Changes in Precipitation-related Measures
Chapter 7: Future Climate: Projected Extremes 
7.1. Introduction
7.2. Heat Waves
7.3. Wintertime Cold Outbreaks
7.4. Precipitation
7.5. Surface Hydrology
7.6. Fire Weather
7.7. Discussion and Key Uncertainties

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST
Chapter 8: Natural Ecosystems
8.1. Introduction: Climate, Climate Change, and Ecosystems of the Southwest
8.2. Phenology and Species Interactions
8.3. Southwestern Deserts
8.4. Southwestern Forests
Chapter 9: Coastal Issues
9.1. Coastal Assets
9.2. Observed Threats
9.3. Ocean and Coastal Impacts to Ecosystems
9.4. Coastal Impacts to Communities
9.5. Managing Coastal Climate Risks
Chapter 10: Water: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation
10.1. Introduction
10.2. Physical Changes to the Water Cycle
10.3. Human and Natural Systems Impacts, Risks and Vulnerabilities
10.4. Water Sector Adaptation Activities
10.5. Planning Techniques and Stationarity
10.6. Potential Supply and Demand Strategies and Solutions
10.7. Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation
10.8. Federal Adaptation Initiatives
10.9. SECURE Water Act Overview
10.10. Western States Federal Agency Support Team (WestFAST)
10.11. Climate Change and Water Working Group (CCAWWG)
10.12. State Adaptation Efforts
10.13. Regional and Municipal Adaptation Efforts
Chapter 11: Agriculture and Ranching
11.1. Distinctive Features of Southwestern Agriculture
11.2. Implications for Specialty Crops
11.3. On-farm Water Management
11.4. System-wide Water Management: Lessons from Programming Models of  Water Allocation
11.5. Ranching Adaptations to Multi-year Drought
11.6. Disaster Relief Programs and Climate Adaptation
Chapter 12: Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
12.1. Introduction
12.2. Energy in the Southwest: Past and Present
12.3. Potential Climate Impacts on Energy
Chapter 13: Urban Areas
13.1. Cities in the Southwest
13.2. Pathways Through which Climate Change Will Affect Cities in the Southwest
13.3. Critical Missing Data and Monitoring in Cities
Chapter 14: Transportation
14.1. Introduction
14.2. Passenger Transportation Trends in the Southwest
14.3. Freight Movement in the Southwest
14.4. Impacts of Climate Change
14.5. Major Vulnerabilities and Uncertainties
Chapter 15: Human Health
15.1. Introduction
15.2. Current Climate-Related Health Concerns in the Southwest
15.3. Climate Change and Potential Health Implications 
15.4. Observed and Predicted Effects on Health from Climate Change
15.5. Uncertainties
15.6. Public Health Planning for Climate Change
Chapter 16: Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Border Communities
16.1. Introduction
16.2. Definition of the Border Region
16.3. Border Region Climate Variability, Climate Change, and Impacts
16.4. Understanding Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptive Capacity in the Border  Region
16.5. Sectoral Analysis of Border Vulnerability
Chapter 17: Unique Challenges Facing Southwestern Tribes
17.1. Introduction
17.2. The Effects of Marginal Living Conditions and Extreme Climatic  Environments
17.3. Current Impacts on Native lands
17.4. Potential Rangeland Impacts
17.5. Adaptation Strategies and Adaptation Planning
17.6. Challenges for Adaptation Planning
17.7. Vulnerability from Economic, Political, and Legal Stresses
17.8. Climate Change Mitigation Strategies

OPTIONS AND RESEARCH NEEDS
Chapter 18: Climate Choices for a Sustainable Southwest
18.1. Introduction
18.2. Defining a Sustainable Approach to Climate Change in the Southwest
18.3. Making a Sustainable Living in the Southwest: Lessons from History
18.4. Limiting Emissions in the Southwest
18.5. Adaptation Options in the Southwest
18.6. Linking Mitigation and Adaptation
18.7. Barriers to Planning for and Implementing Climate Solutions
18.8. Coping with the Risks of Rapid Climate Changes
18.9. Research Gaps
Chapter 19: Moving Forward with Imperfect Information
19.1. Introduction
19.2. Uncertainty Typologies
19.3. Confidence and Uncertainty
19.4. What Is Known and Not Known About Climate in the Southwest
19.5. Moving Forward
Chapter 20: Research Strategies for Addressing Uncertainties
20.1. Introduction
20.2. Developing Research Strategies from Information Needs
20.3. Research Strategies Derived from the Southwest Climate Assessment
20.4. Research Strategies from Southwestern Ecoregional Initiatives
20.5. Strategies to Improve Characterization in Climate and Hydrology
20.6. Strategies to Improve Characterization of Impacts and Vulnerabilities

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