Scenarios are an invaluable tool for analyzing complex systems and understanding possible outcomes. This second volume of the MA series explores the implications of four different approaches for managing ecosystem services in the face of growing human demand for them:
The Global Orchestration approach, in which we emphasize equity, economic growth, and public goods, reacting to ecosystem problems when they reach critical stages.
Order from Strength, which emphasizes security and economic growth.
Adapting Mosaic, which emphasizes proactive management of ecosystems, local adaptation, and flexible governance.
TechnoGarden, a globalized approach with an emphasis on green technology and a proactive approach to managing ecosystems.
The Scenarios volume will help decision-makers and managers identify development paths that better maintain the resilience of ecosystems, and can reduce the risk of damage to human well-being and the environment.
Contents
Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgments
Reader's Guide
Summary: Comparing Alternate Futures of Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being
PART I. State of Knowledge Concerning Ecosystem Forecasts and Scenarios
Chapter 1. MA Conceptual Framework
Chapter 2. Global Scenarios in Historical Perspective
Chapter 3. Ecology in Global Scenarios
Chapter 4. State of the Art in Simulating Future Changes in Ecosystem Services
PART II. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios
Chapter 5. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: Rationale and Overview
Chapter 6. Methodology for Developing the MA Scenarios
Chapter 7. Drivers of Change in Ecosystem Condition and Services
Chapter 8. Four Scenarios
PART III. Implications of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios
Chapter 9. Changes in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers across the Scenarios
Chapter 10. Biodiversity across Scenarios
Chapter 11. Human Well-being across Scenarios
Chapter 12. Interactions among Ecosystem Services
Chapter 13. Lessons Learned for Scenario Analysis
Chapter 14. Policy Synthesis for Key Stakeholders
Appendix A. Color Maps and Figures
Appendix B. Authors
Appendix C. Abbreviations and Acronyms
Appendix D. Glossary
Index
